A new sea ice forecasting tool from the University of Michigan could help coastal Alaska communities make safer decisions about traveling and hunting in the winter. Despite its location thousands of miles from the Arctic, Michigan has become a hub for researchers focused on the movement and forecasting of sea ice.
Like Alaska, Michigan has a massive coastline – it’s the longest freshwater coastline of any state in the United States. That’s thanks to the Great Lakes, of which Michigan touches all but one. And like parts of Alaska’s coastline, every winter huge swaths of the water freezes, opening up the region for winter travel and commerce on ice.
Dr. Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome is the principal investigator for the project and works for the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research (CIGLR), hosted by University of Michigan. She said the team at CIGLR has been studying the Arctic for nearly a decade.
“There are a lot of similarities in Great Lakes to coastal oceans because it's so big. In fact, we do use ocean models to simulate the physical phenomena or physical processes in the Great Lakes,” Fujisaki-Manome said. “So the scale we have here is transferable to other coastal areas, especially where it has ice, and Alaska is a prime area.”
The team at CIGLR and Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory built a model called the Arctic Sea Route Nowcast/Forecast System (GCAS). But it's over a decade old, and Fujisaki-Manome said it was time for an overhaul.
The new model under development upgrades its resolution from 5 to 1.5 kilometers, giving a much more detailed view of ice in high-traffic areas like the coastline.
Ukallaysaaq Okleasik, a Nome-based consultant for the project, said that’s critical for travelers and subsistence users who rely on solid and safe ice.
“That ice has been important for seal hunting, walrus hunting, as well as winter crabbing, which is an important piece and people setting pots, losing pots, losing their catch,” Okleasik said.
Okleasik said sea ice is becoming more and more unpredictable, and thinks climate change is the culprit. He said the way the ice is behaving defies long-held traditional knowledge, making it harder to know when it's safe to be on it.
Okleasik was brought on to help the CIGLR team imbue the project with Indigenous values and priorities. He envisions the updated model working hand in hand with traditional knowledge.
“It's a way to incorporate technology into the community, right?” Okleasik said. “Especially when we're trying to look at a forecast and maybe somebody deciding, ‘do I set a crab pot today?’ and maybe ‘what would that look like in three days?’”
John McClure serves as the research engagement specialist for the project, which is funded for three years through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing program. He said the team is focused on “iterative engagement”, incorporating feedback from local stakeholders so the tool is practical and useful.
“We’re really trying to make something that’s actionable, not just doing research for research’s sake, but creating something that can be used and added to current and traditional ways of knowing that already exist,” McClure said.
A prototype of the new model is already online with hourly forecasts out to three days. Eventually, the team plans to expand its forecast out to ten days.
Ukallaysaaq Okleasik is a member of KNOM's Board of Directors. Okleasik did not have any editorial input or control over this story.
